Un’analisi condotta da Tecnocasa sul mercato dei mutui conferma che nel IV trimestre del 2010 le famiglie italiane hanno ricevuto finanziamenti per l’acquisto dell’abitazione per 15.041,15 milioni di euro.

Rispetto allo stesso trimestre del 2009 si registra un calo delle erogazioni del -2,34% per un controvalore di -306,27 mln di euro. È quanto emerge dall’ultima pubblicazione dei dati statistici di Banca d’Italia. Si ferma dunque la serie delle rilevazioni di segno positivo iniziata nel IV trimestre 2009 e proseguita per tre trimestri consecutivi.

L’analisi del IV trimestre 2010 consolida una tendenza al decremento delle variazioni trimestrali delle erogazioni iniziato lo scorso trimestre, quando il saldo al pari periodo 2009 era di segno positivo (+8,30% rispetto al III trim. 2009) ma in calo rispetto a quanto registrato nel II trimestre (+23,16% rispetto al II trim. 2009). Il calo che risulta dalla differenza tra le variazioni fa comunque pensare ad un movimento al ribasso di breve durata. I volumi erogati includono anche i mutui di sostituzione/surroga, benché in continuo calo rispetto al 2009; secondo l’Ufficio Studi Gruppo Tecnocasa, sezione mediazione creditizia, tali volumi rappresentano nel quarto trimestre 2010 circa il 10% del totale.

Analizzando l’anno 2010, sono stati erogati alle famiglie italiane finanziamenti per l’acquisto di abitazioni per 56.914,32 mln di euro. Da ritenersi quindi buona la chiusura d’anno, soprattutto se confrontata con il 2009. Infatti, nonostante il calo del IV trimestre, si è riscontrato un incremento annuo a doppia cifra, pari a +11,49%. A livello di nuove erogazioni siamo dunque tornati ai valori pre-crisi, quando nel 2005 si registrarono erogazioni per 56.266,25 mln di euro. Il mercato appare dunque solido e in ripresa. Una crescita graduale e sostenibile appare ora possibile anche se non vanno sottovalutati i segnali di ridimensionamento evidenziati in quest’ultimo trimestre.

Nel quarto trimestre 2010 l’andamento nelle Macroaree italiane è risultato disomogeneo. Mentre le Macroaree del Nord hanno fatto registrare un calo delle erogazioni rispetto allo stesso trimestre del 2009, le altre hanno sostanzialmente tenuto riportando variazioni migliorative. La Macroarea Meridionale è quella che è cresciuta maggiormente, + 3,17%, seguita dalla Macroarea Insulare con +2,77% e da quella Centrale con +1,16%. Il calo più sostenuto si è verificato nella Macroarea Nord Orientale con un -7,11% seguita dalla Macroarea Nord Occidentale con -4,33%.

La Macroarea Centrale ha superato la Macroarea Nord Orientale per volumi assoluti erogati anche nel IV trimestre 2010. Il fenomeno ha avuto origine nel I trimestre 2010 e si è ripetuto nei trimestri successivi. La Macroarea Nord Occidentale con 5.229,80 mln di euro eroga il 35% del totale dei volumi e resta quella che incide maggiormente; al secondo posto per incidenza la Macroarea Centrale con volumi erogati pari a 3.504,20 mln di euro ( 23%). Scende al terzo posto la Macroarea Nord Orientale che con 3.294,87 mln di euro rappresenta il 22% dei volumi, seguita dalla Macroarea Meridionale con 1.984,81 mln di euro, il 13% del totale. Chiude la classifica la Macroarea Insulare con il 7% dei volumi per un controvalore erogato nel trimestre pari a 1.027,48 mln di euro.

Il 2010 si chiude quindi con un aumento delle erogazioni in tutte le Macroaree. La Macroarea Centrale è quella che ha fatto registrare il maggior incremento: +17,35% rispetto al 2009. A seguire la Macroarea Insulare e quella Meridionale che hanno registrato un incremento a due cifre, rispettivamente +15,73% e +15,35%. Più modesto l’incremento per le due Macroaree del Nord. L’Italia Nord Occidentale ha fatto rilevare un incremento di +8,27% mentre l’Italia Nord Orientale è quella che ha avuto l’incremento più esiguo, +7,63%.

Per ciò che riguarda l’incidenza delle singole Macroaree sul totale delle erogazioni, nel cumulativo annuo 2010 assistiamo al sorpasso della Macroarea Centrale nei confronti della Macroarea Nord Orientale. Il fenomeno assume particolare rilevanza se si pensa che era dal 2007 che la Macroarea Centrale non erogava più di quella Nord Orientale; allora la differenza era minima (43 mln di euro) mentre nel 2010 è stata più importante (642 mln di euro).

Si conferma anche su base annua la preponderanza delle erogazioni nella Macroarea Nord Occidentale, 35% delle erogazioni totali per un controvalore di 19.676,47 mln di euro. Segue la Macroarea Centrale con volumi erogati per 13.547,05 mln di euro, il 24% del totale. Terza per ”peso” la Macroarea Nord Orientale, 23% dei volumi con 12.905,25 mln di euro. Chiudono l’Italia Meridionale, 7.166,08 mln che rappresenta il 12% dei volumi e infine i 3.669,48 mln di euro della Macroarea Insulare pari al 6% del totale dei volumi erogati nell’anno.

A livello regionale l’andamento delle erogazioni nel quarto trimestre 2010 ha visto per 14 regioni su 20 un incremento rispetto al medesimo trimestre del 2009. In particolare spicca l’ottima performance della regione Piemonte che fa rilevare l’aumento nazionale più sostenuto con un +21,67% seguito da Sardegna +18,30 e Lazio +8,33%. Tra le regioni che hanno avuto un decremento il dato di spicco è quello della Lombardia, prima per volumi assoluti, ma con una diminuzione delle erogazioni del -12,34%. In calo anche Toscana -10,90% e Veneto -9,59%.

Nel 2010 tutte le regioni d’Italia hanno fatto registrare un aumento delle erogazioni anche se in misura differente. Registriamo infatti gli incrementi più sostenuti in Lazio +22,77% in Basilicata +20,78% e in Piemonte +19,42%. Aumenti decisamente più contenuti invece per Trentino Alto Adige +2,92%, Lombardia +5,21% ed Emilia Romagna +5,50%.

Per quanto attiene l’incidenza regionale sul totale erogato nella nazione la Lombardia resta la regione che maggiormente contribuisce ai volumi nazionali con il 23,59%, seguita da Lazio 12,59% ed Emilia Romagna 9,60%. Valle d’Aosta, Molise e Basilicata sono le regioni che contribuiscono meno, anche per ovvie ragioni di dimensioni e rispettivamente per lo 0,20%, lo 0,27% e lo 0,35%.

A livello provinciale sulle 110 analizzate se ne riscontrano 57 che hanno evidenziato un aumento delle erogazioni, in particolare Sassari con un incremento del +37,22%, Latina +29,52% e Vibo Valentia +29,30%. Tra le contrazioni maggiori invece Agrigento con -50,18% (che nello scorso trimestre aveva fatto registrare un aumento del 54%), Isernia -27,02% e la provincia di Milano, seconda per volumi assoluti dopo Roma, che fa segnare un sostenuto calo pari al -25,90%.

Commenti (29)

  1. vorrei sapere se quest’anno è l’anno del compra vendita case, per via del tasso di interesse, o è meglio che scendano i prezzi?

  2. Bel lavoro ma ottsiiitmco su almeno due punti:Corso Tennis: per un classico 3+2 da 1.5h tennis+ 2h atl.(sett.)mi son sentito chiedere anche circa 2500 euro (8 mesi) ..comunque ritengo che si possa trovare a circa 1500-1600.Spese Tornei: se per caso aggiungi 2-3 tornei fuori regione, le voci spese tornei + varie + auto se ne vanno solo con questi Nel nostro caso circa 25 tornei + 1 Macroarea in regione + 2 tornei fuori reg. + 1 clinic estivo+ 1 qualif.camp. ita + 8 mesi all. agonistico 5.5h tennis + 2 atl.(SETT.) + 2 mesi estivi media 3-4h tennis + 1-2 Atl.(SETT.) TOTALE arrotondato per DIFETTO .. 5.000 euro ai quali aggiungere TRASPORTI+ATTREZZ.+ABBIGL.+VARIESenza parlare delle varie assenze dal lavoro dei genitori per accompagnare il ragazzo Finche’ c’e’ la passione .

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  21. Bon, j’arrive après la joute pédestre apparemment… ;o)Un seul conseil avant de vous endormir : dites *le* à votre chéri[e] en alexandrin. C’est ringard [dans le sens de “ça se fait pas sur un skyblog”] mais ça fait toujours son p’tit effet. ;o)

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  23. Pardon me butting into this because I'm not a hunter, yet. We have a retriever and a German Shepard. Both are a little over a year old.We feed them Diamond currently, and have fed them Blue Buffalo. We liked Call of the Wild, but our feed store around the corner closed, so we are trying new places. We give them an raw egg when the chickens crack a shell and they love it. We also give them raw chicken. So far the chicken and Diamond has been a good combination.

  24. Et bien moi j’ai regardé cette video, et je dois dire qu’elle m’a rendu presque physiquement malade. C’est tout simplement ignoble. Ces gens sont fous.

  25. I tell you that this drop in price was due to a contraction of lending activities; a contraction of cash! This contraction of activity was because of the reduction of interest rates by the Fed which started September 07!I feel like I’ve heard this song before. Someone kick the jukebox, I think the record is skipping. db

  26. Thanks Johnny! I have realized early that a wage is just how much money you are willing to get to sacrifice your time sitting in an office. To me it was always about minimizing my time working so I would cover the necessities (hence the need to reduce them), and have lots of free time to do what I love.Pauline recently posted..

  27. The best way to naturally increase his stamina would be to go on a national internet forum and complain about the time he lasted 3 minutes one day…cough I mean decrease..sorry

  28. Ah! Ben mince! Olimalia, vous avez raison! Toute ma belle construction s’effondre…La question : comment l’escoufle a-t-il pu être pris comme enseigne par les prêteurs sur gage ? demeure.J’y retourne immédiatement.

  29. Legoland is in North San Diego County in Carlsbad. Coronado is quite aways away. Carlsbad has a nice beach as do all the North County coastal cities (Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar). There is a Best Western in Carlsbad right near the beach. If you want a real high end hotel/resort, Four Seasons Aviara, also in Carlsbad, is one of the best in the country.

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